|
Cotton Acreage Forecast
Monday, February 13, 2023 9:34AM CDT
Cotton Acreage Forecast 02/13 09:33
Citing Prices, National Cotton Council Forecasts Lower Cotton Acreage
U.S. cotton growers will plant 11.4 million acres, down 17% below 2022
acreage, the National Cotton Council stated based on a survey of early planting
intentions released at the cotton council's annual meeting.
Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
OMAHA (DTN) -- Facing higher production costs, slumping consumer demand, and
supply chain disruptions, the National Cotton Council forecast Sunday that at
least some cotton acreage will shift to other, more profitable crops.
U.S. cotton growers will plant 11.4 million acres, down 17% below 2022
acreage, the NCC stated based on a survey of early planting intentions released
at the cotton council's annual meeting.
Still, production could be higher than 2022 if cotton production hits its
five-year average per acre.
In its examination of the cotton industry outlook for 2023, the cotton
council cited production costs remain high, but cotton futures are currently
16.5% lower than a year ago while prices for other commodities remain
relatively unchanged.
"The current economic signals are reflected in the 2023 survey results as
many growers indicated a shift away from cotton to other competing
commodities," NCC stated.
"History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making
planting decisions," said NCC's Vice President of Economics and Policy Analysis
Jody Campiche. "Relative to the average futures prices during the first quarter
of 2022, cotton prices are lower while the prices of most competing commodities
are relatively unchanged. Price ratios of cotton to corn and soybeans are at
the lowest level since planting the 2009 crop. In addition, production costs
remain elevated."
DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman points out that spot cotton prices have fallen
from over $1.50 a pound last May to roughly 85 cents per pound today "and have
lost producer confidence that prices will be profitable in 2023." Hultman
added, "In January, we saw USDA's estimate of winter wheat plantings increase
roughly 3.3 million acres for the new season and new-crop milo prices in
Wichita, Kansas, are going for over $7 a bushel."
Hultman added, NCC's 11.4-million-acre planting estimate for 2023 is down
from 13.76 million acres in 2022. "That's a reasonable estimate, possibly even
still a bit high with other drought-tolerant choices available in 2023," he
said.
Using the five-year average state-level yield per harvested acre, NCC
forecasts a 2023 cotton crop of 15.7 million bales, with 15.2 million upland
bales and 466,000 extra-long staple (ELS) bales. That would still top the 14.7
million bale crop for 2022, according to USDA's National Agricultural
Statistics Service Crop Production report.
Cotton acreage in 2022 was 12.5 million acres, up 11% from 2021's acreage.
Upland cotton is the dominant crop at 12.3 million acres. American Pima cotton
was 156,000 acres last year.
NCC's survey showed farmers in Texas, the country's largest cotton-producing
state, would cut cotton acreage by 21.2%. If that holds, Texas cotton acreage
would dial back from 7.1 million acres last year to about 5.6 million acres,
which is more in line with 2021 planting numbers, according to USDA's NASS.
NCC also cited estimates of overall acreage declines in the Southeast with
12.9% lower acreage in Alabama, 25% fewer acres in North Carolina, 27.9% fewer
acres in Florida, but just 1.1% lower acreage among Georgia farmers. Georgia is
the second-largest state for cotton acreage, coming in at 1.2 million acres in
2022.
The acreage forecast comes less than a week after Bayer announced its new
seed trait technology, ThryvOn, will be commercially available for the 2023
growing season. See,
https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2023/02/07/bayers-thryvon
-cotton-passes-hurdles
Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com
Follow him on Twitter @ChrisClaytonDTN
(c) Copyright 2023 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, April 23, 2020 10:42AM CDT
Thursday, April 23, 2020 10:42AM CDT
Friday, April 3, 2020 5:20PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, May 29, 2020 3:52AM CDT
Thursday, May 28, 2020 11:47AM CDT
Monday, March 30, 2020 8:58AM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, April 23, 2020 10:56AM CDT
Thursday, April 23, 2020 10:56AM CDT
Wednesday, April 1, 2020 11:05AM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tuesday, May 19, 2020 11:09AM CDT
Thursday, April 2, 2020 5:50PM CDT
Thursday, April 2, 2020 5:50PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, March 27, 2020 7:29AM CDT
Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:08PM CDT
Wednesday, March 18, 2020 11:19AM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Thursday, April 23, 2020 10:54AM CDT
Friday, April 3, 2020 1:43PM CDT
Thursday, April 2, 2020 2:13PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, April 3, 2020 3:51PM CDT
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 12:20PM CDT
Friday, March 20, 2020 1:59PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, April 3, 2020 5:07PM CDT
Friday, March 27, 2020 1:45PM CDT
Friday, March 20, 2020 5:43PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monday, March 30, 2020 3:11PM CDT
Monday, March 30, 2020 3:11PM CDT
Monday, March 23, 2020 3:43PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 2:57PM CDT
Tuesday, March 24, 2020 1:44PM CDT
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 3:35PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wednesday, April 1, 2020 1:27PM CDT
Friday, March 20, 2020 8:30AM CDT
Monday, March 9, 2020 5:22PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, April 3, 2020 3:03PM CDT
Tuesday, March 31, 2020 11:15AM CDT
Thursday, March 26, 2020 1:52PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Friday, April 3, 2020 4:39PM CDT
Thursday, April 2, 2020 3:51PM CDT
Wednesday, April 1, 2020 4:59PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Tuesday, March 24, 2020 12:53PM CDT
Monday, March 16, 2020 11:29AM CDT
Thursday, March 5, 2020 5:06PM CDT
|
|
|
|
|
DTN Headline News
DTN Blogs & Forums